Right now, the tipping bucket rain gauge at the airport has only reported 4.61″ of water since March 1st, over 1.5″ below normal. We’re going to change that however as our next system will approach from the mid west this weekend bringing with it the potential to change that water deficit into a surplus when all is said and done.

Forecast details as followed…

Friday Night
Another dry cold night ahead. With generally clear skies and a dew point around 20°F, temperatures will again fall tonight to near freezing. Frost is expected across most of Monroe County, expect near the immediate lake shore and even some below freezing numbers will be reported well inland away from sources of water or buildings. For any of those gardening enthusiasts reading today, cover those tulips and any other sensitive vegetation.

Saturday
After a frosty start, mostly sunny skies will send temperatures back above the 60° mark. High clouds will begin to roll in during the afternoon, but any showers will remain to our southwest until after sunset for Rochester; however; for those of you tuning in from the Southern Tier, look for showers developing by late afternoon or early evening.

Saturday Night
Rain will begin to overspread the entire area from southwest to northeast from about 10pm forward. Rainfall intensity will slowly increase as the night progresses. Lows in the upper 40s.

Sunday
A warm front will lift north across Ohio and stall over our area as the associated low pivots. The best upper level dynamics and moisture fields will be over WNY so a call for a rain on Sunday is like shooting fish in a barrel.

Monday
Will keep off and on showers in the forecast for Monday. Not as heavy as Sunday though. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.

Down the Road
Few showers possible Tuesday, sun returns for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with temperatures rebounding to near 70° by Friday.

So how high did those temperatures get?
Friday: 80
Saturday: 86*
Sunday: 87*
*-All time record daily highs.

Just for kicks, all three of those days Rochester, NY saw daily high temperatures greater than those of Miami, Florida. Furthermore, all three of those days in Miami were partly to mostly sunny. That just goes to show how impressive that air mass that originated in the desert southwest was that managed to break away and make it all the way to the north east. Very rare for April.

Anyways, a cold front moved through around 9pm Saturday night knocking temperatures back a little bit. It might feel cool, but the airmass that’s currently in place is STILL 15-20° above normal. The normal high for April 4th is 50°.

Easter Sunday
Another mostly sunny day. Noticeably cooler with readings near 70°. It’s amusing to me how I have to mention “noticeably cooler” for a high still 20° above normal.

Monday
A short wave will swing through Monday morning. Not too impressed with dynamics and moisture to guarantee we’ll see much out of this. A chance of a early to late morning shower. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny with temperatures back to around 70°.

Tuesday
A warm front lifts through bringing with it abundant moisture and instability. Look for scattered showers and maybe rumble of thunder anytime from early morning to early afternoon. May also see a few brief summer-like downpours. Highs in the low to mid 70s.

Wednesday
Our last day of unseasonably warm temperatures before they are knocked back to the 50s for the remainder of the week. Look for partly sunny skies early on with developing showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s.

More…
A cold front will be crossing the area during the day Wednesday. This front will be a focal point for the development of more showers and thunderstorms. If we can see a fair amount of sun during the morning hours, we could have a few frisky thunderstorms developing with locally heavy downpours and perhaps some small hail.

Enjoy it.

Saturday
After a cold night (lows in the upper teens), on Saturday expect another day of endless sunshine. The core of colder air lifts back north to the Canadian Maritimes allowing temperatures aloft to rebound to normal values. Look for a high around 45°.

Sunday
A dry beginning to the day on Sunday, but increasing clouds out ahead of our next system will move in Sunday morning leading to showers Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will run in the mid to upper 40s.

Monday
Forecast confidence goes a little downhill on Monday. It’s a tough call between a few showers or a soaking rain. Either way, Monday will feature some rain, unsure of how much yet, and temperatures still hanging in the 40s.

The Anticipated Warm up
On Tuesday, high pressure will begin to build in clearing skies out and giving us a return to plenty of sunshine for an extended period of time. Temperatures will be on the rise day to day next week with no treat of any precipitation. Below are the current forecast highs as it stands.

Tuesday: 50-53
Wednesday: 62-65
Thursday: 68-71
Friday: 73-77
Saturday: 75-80

Keep in mind, locations closer to lake Ontario will be significantly lower.

Saturday
A difficult forecast on our hands for Saturday, especially for temperatures. The approaching cold front will be on our backdoor by Saturday morning and will stall. A difference of 50-100 miles on the location of the front once it stills will be the difference between mostly sunny skies with temperatures climbing well into the 60s to even a few backyard thermometers reaching the low 70s or mostly cloudy and upper 40s to near 50° at best. Based on models trending towards to second solution, it looks like we’ll have to wait for the first 70° day of 2010 for quite some time. So on Saturday, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies. Noticeably cooler with temperatures around 50°. If I am wrong about tomorrow and the front hangs further to the north, it will be a blessing.

Sunday
The front will swing through Sunday morning. A few scattered showers will accompany the the front throughout the day, but Sunday will by no means be a washout as there will be more dry time than wet time for sure. Highs on Sunday will be a good twenty degrees colder than those mid 60s on Friday. Expect mid 40s.

Monday
The steady rains will hold off until Monday as Monday will feature plenty of cold rain especially from mid morning forward. Another day of 40s.

That sun will be the difference between a 60° day or a 65-70° day. If we can completely clear the skies out, I’ll see everyone on the putting green as temps will climb into the mid to upper 60s, but count on 60 without a doubt.

We have another beauty on deck for Monday. Mostly sunny skies will dominate once again sending temperatures well into the mid to upper 40s. The high on Sunday hit 46° officially at the airport and there is no reason why we shouldn’t meet or exceed that on Monday.

A similar story for Tuesday although a upper level low well to our north and east will try and send colder air aloft towards us. This will translate to cooler readings, but still highs will top out in the low to mid 40s. Plenty of sunshine still.

Wednesday could be the first day we hit 50°. Cooler temps aloft on Tuesday head back north. With mostly sunny skies, there is no reason things shouldn’t warm into the upper 40s to near 50°. The only fly in the ointment each day this week is whether or not the west, southwest wind will be strong enough to transport Lake Erie modified air far enough west to Rochester. It’s that time of the year again when lake breezes cannot be over looked.

Models are trying to show a few weak disturbances riding around the ridge that’s currently in place for Thursday. Moisture parameters are fairly light right now, so I am not going to forecast anything significant just yet. Either way, temperatures will still remain in the upper 40s to near 50°. If we can sneak sunshine in on Thursday, we’ll see 50s for sure. In fact, 850s might be warm enough to support readings near 60° if we can clear skies out. Same holds true for Friday.

Enjoy it!

For a long time now, we’re talking months, the long wave upper level pattern over North America has been a ridge over Alaska and the Pacific Coast with a trough here back east allowing cold arctic air to surge towards to Gulf of Mexico. At times, the pattern has flattened out to more of a zonal flow, but never a ridge in the east.

Well, I am proud to announce that all indications (models that is) point to a developing a surface ridge to finally build over this half of the country. This ridge won’t be anything worth doing a case study on, but it’s the first good news I’ve been able to write about in many months.

The only things keeping me from inking in a 50 degree day next week is that one model (the GFS for the weather nerds reading) shows a pool of cold air sliding down the east side of the ridge. I am remaining optimistic of the GFS’ southern bias of cold pools of air that fair in advance and dismissing it from making it to WNY. Either way, temperatures will still run above normal (hey when’s the last time I said that?) from Saturday to at least Tuesday.

It’s too early to determine cloud cover, but major weather systems should stay far enough away from us to keep precipitation chances low. With the angle of the sun growing everyday (now at the same strength as in early October), it wouldn’t take much to send temperatures into the 50s, especially if we can melt some of this snow pack by then.

I’ll have an updated posted in a couple of days. Hopefully things will remain on course…

On Tuesday afternoon, all is mainly quiet around the Great Lakes region. Just a few flurries showing up on radar. Skies vary from mostly cloudy over WNY, but just north over Southern Ontario, hardly a cloud to be found. That drier air is heading our way and will arrive here for Wednesday. The only thing keeping Wednesday from being mostly sunny is a storm system that will pass well to our south and east may try and throw a few high clouds our way. Never the less, expect a mix of sun and clouds on Wednesday with temperature in the mid 30s.

A similar story on Thursday. I don’t think we’ll completely clear skies out yet, but do expect late morning/afternoon partly sunny skies. Again, temps reaching the mid 30s.

By Friday the clouds should be gone. A gorgeous (dare I say spring like) day. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule. I am not sure what’s going on with these models, but they are grossly under doing potential highs on Friday. Right now they want to suggest highs in the mid to upper 20s. I’m not buying that one bit. Lets go with mid to upper 30s instead.

How does mostly sunny and low 40s sound for Saturday and maybe even Sunday? More to come.

A couple of short waves will swing down around the low parked over the NYC area. This will spark off a couple passing snow showers on Sunday. With the stronger February sun, most of the snow showers on Sunday will melt as they hit the ground so accumulations will be negligible. Temperatures will rise above freezing into the middle 30s.

Here are the latest snowfall totals since Thursday morning provided by the NWS.

…MONROE COUNTY…
PENFIELD 17.0 615 PM 2/26
WEBSTER 17.0 530 PM 2/26
CHARLOTTE 15.3 459 PM 2/26
ROCHESTER 14.8 850 PM 2/26
BROCKPORT 10.5 800 AM 2/26
PERINTON 10.5 832 AM 2/26

Not a bad looking week ahead temperature wise. Everyday will see temperatures climb into the mid to upper 30s. No arctic air anywhere near Rochester… and lets keep it that way.

…MONROE COUNTY… Total Time Taken
ROCHESTER 11.9″ 700 AM
BROCKPORT 10.5″ 800 AM
PERINTON 10.5″ 832 AM
ROCHESTER AIRPORT 8.9″ 700 AM
NORTH CHILI 7.0″ 700 AM

For the remainder of Friday, light snow will continue through the afternoon before beginning to taper off. Only a inch or two more expected today. Temperatures will climb into the lower 30s. This will allow some of the snow to melt making it more dense. Shoveling could get tricky at times.

Later tonight, temperatures will drop back below the freezing mark. This will for sure develop slick spots on the roads so continue to take it easy out there if you’re driving.