A brutally cold winter has been primarily blamed by a strong El Nino anomaly and strong negative AO anomaly, which has brought a unique storm track pattern juxtaposed with a higher cold air outburst frequency that congealed perfectly into a strong cold anomaly throughout the Eastern U.S.  With these anomalies currently diminishing, we would expect to revert to more seasonal patterns.  Yet, this has yet to occur as another storm system currently located over southern Georgia continues to filter in cold air behind it.  However, there is good news and great news.  The good news is that the primary circumpolar vortex (really cold air mass) is situated over northeast Canada and is continuing to trek east.  But Eric, what is good about that?  Although colder air will be advected, it means there is no clean filtration line for that extreme cold air to advect its way into New York.  Basically, it will be cold but it could be a lot colder.

                Now, let’s hear the great news (WARNING: there will be some small caveats, so take it is you may).  Current AO ensembles not only have it trending towards neutral, it could revert positive.  First caveat: positive AO does not mean warmer temperatures, necessarily.  But, it does mean that Canadian air mass frequency ill be greatly reduced.  That is good news for all of us who are sick of winter.  What’s gets even better is the more seasonal pattern developing in the latest GFS.  For the past several runs (excluding yesterday’s 12z/7:00AM run), the GFS showed a considerable reversal of the regime that has been plaguing much of the continental U.S.   The general synoptic setup will feature that system in Georgia moving up the east coast and bringing cold temperatures to the northeast.  However, getting into the weekend we see a huge area of warm air advection into the Midwest, reaching the Great Lakes by around Monday.  Although I am not promising golfing weather, I can promise above normal temperatures for at the very least a day or two.  Although it could very well be associated with rain, we begin to see a shift in the weather pattern.  That system is trekking in Southern Canada, not the southeastern U.S.  This lets warmer air build throughout the southern tier of the U.S., allowing for some ridging to build in the middle of the country. 

Yesterday’s run had put a “frowny face” mentality into any medium-to-long range forecaster in the northeast, because the system allowed for more cold air advection after its passing.  Such had been the case all throughout winter and it looked destined for a continued regime.  However, with the exception of this one model run, the GFS seems persistent on building some more seasonable temperatures throughout the middle and eastern portions of the country.  In fact by the final time step of the model 10 days out, we see the biggest ridge to date (for this year) building in the Midwest.  Caveat: GFS loves to “overdo” so we will see what actually plays out down the road.  Regardless, the possibilities exist of severe weather outbreaks throughout the Midwest by the middle of March (if a low pressure system can develop and make use of that warm moist air) and perhaps a day or two of way above normal temperatures for the northeast sometime in mid-March as well (again possibility, I am not guaranteeing anything).  This is also NOT to say that cold temperatures and snowfall is over in New York.  Not only lingering is the possibility of colder than normal periods (albeit much smaller time periods than as of late), but seasonal right now means upper 30’s.  Withstanding these all of these possibilities is the GFS wanting to shift regimes with these strong teleconnection patterns reverting back to neutral and allow some bit of seasonality into the forecast that has been lacking for a few months.

The first is unintentional. We’ve had some technical difficulties at our house regarding networking and sharing of the Internet connection. Every time my computer goes to sleep and I try to restart it, I have to reset the connection on the main computer… on the next floor down… which is frequently in use. It’s a pain in the foot, so I simply haven’t been on the Internet as much to focus on forecasting (and other stuff).

The second is kind of intentional. Operational weather forecasting may be my stated profession (if only getting a job in the industry was actually possible in this economy), but those who know me also know that I am a talented musician (mostly as a singer, but I also play some piano and, more recently, guitar). After having met with a fellow musician and friend of mine last weekend, it has inspired me to focus more time on some songwriting and music. I seem to enjoy it more than weather forecasting to be honest.

The good news is that you don’t have to worry about this being permanent. I will be resuming forecasts on a somewhat regular basis some time this week, provided the technical issues subside.

Fall colors continue to progress very nicely across the state. Here in Little Valley and vicinity, foliage varies from hill to hill, with the one outside our house having the most visible change, a little past midpoint. That hill is pointed away from the sun. Other trees in the area have less change. There are  a lot of browns, oranges and reds in the trees in the area, along with plenty of green for a nice accent effect. Not a lot of bright yellow this year.

Most of the rest of the state is at around midpoint. The Adirondack Mountains are at peak foliage throughout. The Catskills are at near peak. The Finger Lakes and the I-90 Corridor are still listed in the “Just Changing” category (10-25% change). The Hudson Valley, North Country, and Southern Tier (including us) are listed at midpoint (30-60% change).

The Pennsylvania foliage bureau (.doc format) is reporting 25% color change in the Northern Tier. They also note that the maples are showing the most foliage right now, while oaks have yet to change. (New York doesn’t usually go into that much detail, which I think is a little disappointing.)

~Jerry

Another mainly clear evening ahead for Thursday as high pressure is in full control. Lows tonight won’t be as cold as they were last night. This morning’s low ended up at 46°, a few degrees cooler than I had expected. The big difference tonight is a wind shift turning southwesterly driving in some milder air.

The day on Friday will begin tranquil. The front I mentioned above will begin to move through during the early afternoon. I think the best potential for showers will be mainly to our east where moisture parameters and dynamics are more aligned, but we’ll definitely see thickening skies. Perhaps a sprinkle for Monroe County, but that’s about it.

Friday night will be by far the chillest night we’ve seen in months. All locations, expect near the lake, will see temperatures plummet into the low to mid 40s in Monroe County. Expect upper 30s south of the Thruway and even upper 20’s east of Lake Ontario.

Saturday and Sunday will both be mostly sunny. Saturday will be the cooler of the two days with those low morning lows expected, but temps will rebound nicely to the upper 60s. We’ll do a few degrees warmer on Sunday as readings will climb into the low 70s.