OK, folks, here’s the scoop: as you’ve noticed, in light of the recent decisions from some of our former posters to no longer post here, for various reasons (none of which we begrudge) Andrew has decided to reorient the site into one that focuses on the Rochester area and Western New York. He has welcomed me to continue forecasting for my usual Twin Tiers region. As of now, I do intend to continue somehow. If things look a little out of place, I do apologize, but Andrew and I are working on it.

Now, as for the Twin Tiers Ten-Day Forecast…

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Warning for portions of Allegany County around and east of Rushford, due to heavy downpours.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, with isolated convective thunderstorms. Afternoon highs in the upper 70s.
Wednesday: A few scattered showers possible, but unlikely, in the overnight hours, then skies clearing in the afternoon. Early lows in the low 60s. Afternoon highs in the low 80s.
Thursday: A clear, calm, cool night, followed by a hot, hazy day. Early lows in the low 50s in the valleys, upper 50s elsewhere. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s. Winds shift into a southerly direction.

Friday through Monday: GFS is forecasting a low to move well to our north but bring a weak “cold” front across the region on Friday, with the possibility of precipitation. Gulf moisture becomes the bigger threat for Saturday as a weak southwesterly flow pushes a separate body of light rain into the area. Sunday, on the other hand, should be dry, as should Monday. Low temperatures are likely to remain in the low 60s throughout the period, but high temperatures will hit the low 80s on Friday before dropping into the upper 70s from Saturday through Monday. In PA regions, where the southerly wet flow should remain more dominant, temperatures could easily remain in the low 80s.

Long range: Both the GFS and the ECMWF forecast the jet stream to establish a zonal flow over the region in the 8-10 day forecast period. GFS forecasts a surface low pressure system to work its way into the jet and swing its way over the area on Tuesday or Wednesday. It’s too far out to predict how much precipitation it can produce, but it’s a fair guess to say it will be significant. Temperatures should remain fairly steady in the low 80s.

Mid-July is, climatologically speaking, the hottest month on the calendar in the western New York/Twin Tiers region. It is also the one where high temperatures are relatively stable. The average high temperature for the Little Valley station is 78 for every day between July 5 and August 5, with the exception of July 22, which peaks at 79.