This Week in the Twin Tiers: Week of June 7, 2010
by J. M. Fuller

Apologies for my mini-vacation last week. It had nothing to do with me dodging the severe weather this weekend, and more to do with some personal issues; this past week has been quite the emotional drain.

Yesterday morning’s thunderstorms were enough to merit a tornado warning for portions of the area (from Salamanca south and east) as well as a severe thunderstorm warning, but no tornadoes were reported. Considering how few people were awake at 5 a.m., that is a very good thing. The good news is that after all of that, a sprawling bubble of high pressure (of the “continental polar” variety, for those who are weather buffs) appears to be building in from the northwest, bringing mostly sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures for this time of year. This week is probably not the week to break out the bikinis.

Monday: A few clouds early, breaking later. Unusually cool, with high temperatures in the low-to-mid-60s.

Tuesday: Clear skies. An unusually cold morning with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s by Tuesday morning (GFS-MOS, one of our guidance products, has Bradford’s low dropping dangerously close to the freezing mark, but given that the dew points aren’t forecast to drop that low, I have a tendency to consider that an inconsistency, which is a relief because the last thing we need around here is a frost in the middle of June.) Temperatures rebound to the upper 60s for Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday: Clouds move in during the early morning hours. Early low temperatures in the upper 40s. High temperatures in the mid-60s. There is some uncertainty about precipitation, since one model is being more aggressive with the advancement of a low pressure mass than the others, but I am inclined to suspect that the GFS is unnecessarily broad with its precipitation, and that the expected rain will likely not happen until the overnight headed into Thursday.

Thursday through Saturday: The models are, however, in general agreement that the core of a low pressure system is indeed forecast to cross over the Appalachians on Thursday, bringing significant precipitation, of approximately a half-inch. This will have the additional benefit, however, of re-establishing the warm, southerly flow we saw last week, and high temperatures can be expected to jump back into the upper 70s– eventually. Thursday’s high temperature will likely only reach the low 60s, a dreary day for sure. Friday will plateau in the low 70s and Saturday will reach the upper 70s (possibly even low 80s), just in time for the weekend. Low temperatures for the same time period will be in the upper 40s for early Thursday and Friday and 50 for early Saturday, with the possibility of an upper 50s low for early Sunday. Precipitation remains very questionable for Friday onward. Expect Friday to be dry, but be on the look out for convective precipitation (i.e., thunderstorms) on Saturday.

~JMF