This Week in the Twin Tiers

All right… somehow I got tangled up in a strange posting schedule that has since come full circle, so hopefully I’ll stay on schedule for the foreseeable future.

When I last posted, there was a significant divergence in the mid-range models over what kind of weather we would have today: the cold and rainy solution favored by the GFS, or the milder solution favored by the ECMWF. The ECMWF solution, as it turns out, was much closer to verifying. The low-pressure system that would’ve been the bane of our existence if the GFS verified remains well out in Saskatchewan. As of Tuesday morning some widely scattered and very light rain showers are passing across central Pennsylvania, well to the south of the forecast area. The jet stream is located directly over the Twin Tiers in a west-southwesterly flow, which favors a continued warm flow.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds, heavier on the clouds in the morning. High temperatures in the mid-60s. Skies mostly clear for Tuesday night.

Wednesday: Early Wednesday lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Mostly sunny, warmer. High temperatures in the mid-70s.

Thursday: Rain begins entering the area overnight heading into Thursday. Early morning lows about 50. Afternoon high temperatures hovering about 60.

Friday through Monday: Another body of rain is expected to move in from the west on Friday afternoon. Behind it is a series of very tightly packed isobars stretching due north-to-south, which will result in a shot of unseasonably cold air moving in from northern Quebec and high temperatures only reaching the upper 40s in most places on Saturday. Scattered rain showers, particularly early, will remain a threat. High pressure will build in on Sunday, clearing our skies, but temperatures will only rebound to the mid-50s, which is still about 10 degrees below our average. ECMWF and GFS appear to be in general agreement and only a few hours apart from each other on the timing of these features.

Long range: The next event to watch for will be a warm front moving up from the Great Plains on Tuesday, followed by another on Thursday; each one appears to have the potential to bring an inch of rain to the region. The 850-mb charts are indicating 10 C for those time periods which would tranlate likely to upper 60s and possibly low 70s for those days. We will be on the bounds of a tight temperature gradient, so this forecast could easily go a few degrees colder or warmer.

~J.M. Fuller