…it would also be a fairly accurate description of the forecast for this weekend. With that, begins the Twin Tiers Weekend Outlook.

The low-pressure system that I discussed earlier in the week appears to be moving somewhat more slowly than I had predicted. As a result, the Twin Tiers region is going to be receiving one of the most dreaded weather phenomena known to man: wraparound. By “dread,” I don’t mean “run away in fear” like the more severe events; no, wraparounds simply lead to miserable, dreary, cold and rainy weather.

As of Saturday morning, the low-pressure mass is anchored over Southern Quebec. The cyclone has been in its dying stages and as such has significant moisture getting caught in an occluded front and getting caught in a circular flow around the low.

Saturday: A mixed bag. Mostly cloudy, with a few breaks of sun and some scattered precipitation. Ridiculously cold, with high temperatures only reaching the upper 30s. (Remember, the high temperature for this time frame SHOULD be in the mid-50s. I guess we can consider this payback for the 70s we had earlier this month.)

Sunday: Early low temperatures at about 30. Cloudy, but dry. Still cool, but moderating, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid-40s.  Clouds break by Sunday night.

Monday: Early Monday lows in the low 30s. Mostly sunny. High temperatures in the low 50s.

Tuesday through Friday: As previously predicted, the bulk of this coming week is likely to remain mostly dry and seasonable, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures to be fairly static in the mid-50s.

Long range: The GFS model has us getting scraped by some light precipitation on Thursday or Friday. The MRF ensemble is heavily divided on this. However, next Sunday (4/25), a Gulf low will make its way into the area and provide us with some significant rain, with over an inch of rain possible. (This, of course, makes it all the more perplexing to see the CPC putting us under a below-normal precipitation prediction for the period of April 22-26. I’m starting to really question whether or not these CPC forecasts are all that accurate.) I did find MRF ensemble graphics today that project all the way out to 16 days but they’re fairly difficult to read, so I haven’t factored these into my forecast today.

~J.M. Fuller