A near miss for today, but we should be OK
This Week in the Twin Tiers
A line of precipitation stretching along a stationary front to our southwest will propagate northwest-to-southeast, just barely clipping Kane with some showers and narrowly missing the rest of the Twin Tiers region. Beyond that, Wednesday and Thursday appear to be relatively comfortable, with a strong high-pressure bubble forecast to anchor itself over New York State in that time span. On Friday, a rapidly weakening low-pressure mass is forecast to pass over the Twin Tiers region, bringing with it the possibility for some more widespread, if light, rain showers.
Tuesday: Clouds and a narrow chance of scattered rain showers, mostly in southwest McKean County, clearing to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Late afternoon highs in the low to mid-50s.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Early morning lows ranging from the mid-20s in the colder mountains and valleys to the low 30s elsewhere. High temperatures in the low 60s.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, unseasonably warm. Early morning lows in the upper 30s. High temperatures pushing 70.
Friday through Monday: Estimated time of arrival for the low-pressure mass and precipitation is approximately the overnight headed into Friday. GFS is holding back a little more than the NAM but both have it leaving the area by Friday afternoon. This is on par with the previous extended forecast. As for an amount of precipitation, expect it to be between .10 and .20 inches– nothing threatening. High temperatures for Friday will hover in the upper 50s. After that, high pressure is once again slated to move into the Twin Tiers and bring in dry, albeit somewhat cooler, temperatures, with a high in the upper 40s for Saturday and some lingering clouds. MRF perturbations are hovering around the normal mark of mid-50s and forecasting mostly clear skies for Sunday, Monday and next Tuesday.
Long range: The GFS extended model has the low pressure system that gives us rain on Friday anchoring itself over the maritime provinces of eastern Canada and becoming a stacked low for several days following its passage, while a high pressure bubble anchors itself over the Appalachians. This will result in a steady, static weather pattern through next Thursday of mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-50s. Somewhat windy, though not blustery, conditions can likely be expected. The Climate Prediction Center places us at drier-than-average for precipitation throughout the April 18-26 forecast period and below-average (see update below) for temperature for the later portion of that, though I suspect this is because temperatures will be steady and won’t likely be rising as fast as climatological norms. Update 8 p.m.: Today’s CPC analysis has bumped the Twin Tiers regions back up to normal for the entire 6-14 day period. Sheesh. I think I’m doing better with this long-range stuff than they are!)
~J.M. Fuller
