The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for the entire Twin Tiers region. A quick look at the river gauges shows that the Allegheny River is expected to crest at just over 10 feet in both Salamanca and Olean. This will be borderline flood stage in Olean, and slightly below flood stage in Salamanca. Eldred, with its narrower and taller chasms, will peak at 15 feet, but well below their flood stage of 23. (Because of the Kinzua Dam, Warren, as usual, will be nowhere near flood stage.) The Genesee River in Wellsville will crest slightly below flood stage. The Cattaraugus Creek in Gowanda is expected to crest at about two feet below flood stage, while Chautauqua Lake and the Chadakoin River are both expected not to be at risk for flooding, but downstream in Russell, the waters are expected to crest on Sunday at about 6 inches below flood stage. Because these are automated forecasts, be prepared for them to be slightly off, and anticipate the possibility of limited flooding to some of these areas.

To put this weekend’s forecast in a nutshell, a low pressure mass has formed off the east coast around Virginia. The prevailing jet stream is southerly and will push much of the rain (as scattered as it is) into the area from the south. The Appalachians will help break some of that up, but we’re still going to see some rain. As for temperatures, expect them to be significantly cooler, into the low to mid-40s (though this is slightly warmer than our average of 40), due to the shifting low pressure system now bringing cooler easterly winds as opposed to the warm southwesterlies we were receiving before.

Saturday: Rain, approximately a half-inch possible. Early highs in the mid-40s, holding steady throughout the day. Noticeable gusty winds in the range of 20-25 mph, from the east to northeast.

Sunday: Low temperatures bottoming in the mid-30s Sunday morning, with another half inch of rain possible. A possibility of some mixed snowflakes remains for the overnight and early morning hours, but will not be enough to accumulate considering the waterlogged ground. During the day, all precipitation will be rain, and will begin to dissipate. A quarter inch of rain is possible. Highs in the low 40s.

Monday: Any scattered precipitation remaining will move out Monday morning. Mostly cloudy skies, with a few breaks of sun. Low temperatures in the low 30s. Afternoon highs in the upper 40s.