Groundhog Day Predictions

Rochester, NY: Mostly Cloudy -- Temperature: 64.94°F -- Dew Point: 50°F -- Humidity: 58.43% -- Wind: SW 10.35mph as of 6:54am

Feb.02, 2010 in General Weather Discussion, Long Range Forecasts

6 more weeks?

As we all know, groundhogs really don’t make very good meteorologists, but it’s become commonplace to use them as a traditional bellwether for the direction of the weather: if it’s sunny on February 2 (Candlemas or Imbolc), the groundhog sees his shadow and there are 6 more weeks of winter. If it’s cloudy, rainy or snowy, the groundhog doesn’t see his shadow, and it’s a sign of early spring. Never mind that a sunny sky happens more often in spring than winter, and that logically, the whole tradition would seem backward. Indeed, multiple credible climatology studies show that groundhogs having an approximately 3 out of 8 (38%) accuracy rate, even less than random chance. Nonetheless, here are some predictions from around the continent: