Currently moving northward along the windward side of the Appalachian Mountains is a warm front that is carrying with it significant moisture and precipitation. Surface convergence, combined with some decent warm air advection in the 850-hPa level, is giving a very nice recipe for some widespread rain showers. The question is, how much are we going to get?

Today, if you believe the local WRF model of choice, not much. Most of the heavy stuff in the first wave is going to skirt just to our west, with the Cattaraugus and Gowanda areas being grazed by some light showers. The rest of the area is likely to see cloudy skies, and a temperature well above average for mid-September, in the mid- to perhaps even upper 70s this afternoon.

Tonight, on the other hand, looks more promising. Another wave of showers will continue to work its way up the Appalachians, and in a more favorable convective environment, will provide some widespread rain, something we could use, as we haven’t had much since that lake-effect event back at the end of August. We could easily see a quarter to half an inch out of it. Temperatures probably won’t drop as much, though: early-morning “lows” won’t even drop past 60.

The rain will continue into Tuesday, and will last for most of the day. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, in the low 70s. The next challenge for the forecast is when the rain exits. The models are apparently diverging on this issue… I say it’ll start drying out by Tuesday night, which will be mostly cloudy with lows still very warm, in the upper 60s.

Wednesday, partly sunny skies can be expected, and continued warm weather, with the afternoon highs peaking in the mid-70s again.