Well, Canadians, I must say that this forecast is going to be a heck of a lot more interesting than the past few weeks worth, because we’re finally going to start seeing some significant rain.

Currently moving northward along the windward side of the Appalachian Mountains is a warm front that is carrying with it significant moisture and precipitation. Surface convergence, combined with some decent warm air advection in the 850-hPa level, is giving a very nice recipe for some widespread rain showers. The WRF, a local model of choice, is showing a rather intense cell (over 15 mm/hr) moving just west of the Niagara Peninsula and almost hitting Hamilton square on. Niagara, however, won’t be totally spared, as follow-up showers will follow. The warm Gulf air is primed to boost temperatures up into the 25 C (77 F) range; though at the 850 level it’s 14 C (indicating maximum potential of a balmy 27 C), cloud cover, the threat of rain, and the continuing loss of daylight will begin to reduce the ability to reach that maximum temperature. Expect no less than 10 mm of rain out of this, probably significantly more.

As the area will remain under the influence of the Gulf air Monday night, expect lows to drop only into the 16 C (low 60s) range, more akin to midsummer than mid-September.

Tuesday, lingering showers will still remain, though the chance of them will diminish as time passes. Highs continue to chart well above average, with a high of 24 C (75 F) probable for Tuesday.  Tuesday night, some drying finally starts to work into the area again, with lows dropping to about 14 C (57 F)… not terribly significant of a dropoff, but the clearing skies certainly will create potential for more cooling.

Wednesday and Thursday, according to the forecast models, have negligible chances of precipitation and are still well above average for temperature, with temperatures in the 22-24 C range.

~Jerry