Since Andrew is going to be on vacation this weekend, I’ll be taking over his forecast area for the weekend, and in the meantime will also forecast for Buffalo. There is a little bit of a change in the forecast but we’ll get there.

Friday

Not much change. High pressure remains anchored over the Great Lakes today, and 850-mb temps are in the 12 C range. So, again, afternoon highs in the mid-70s can be expected, with mostly sunny skies.

Friday night will once again be mostly clear, with the omnipresent risk of fog especially in the valleys. The air is not quite as bone-dry as it has been, so expect early-morning lows to be in the low 50s. Upper 50s in the cities.

Saturday

A very weak front is expected to die out well to our northeast, which could bring some marginal cloud cover to the northern parts of the forecast area, but nothing that significant. High temperatures will once again be in the mid-70s throughout the region.

Saturday night will be almost identical to Friday, with clear skies in the cities and northern lowlands and temperatures in the upper 50s, but fog and lower 50s in the Twin Tiers valleys.

Sunday

On Sunday, the forecast begins to get interesting. The HPC prognosis for 12Z Sunday shows a body of precipitation currently over the Deep South propagating northward in a direction parallel to its axis. It is fairly uncommon for precipitation bodies to do this, especially when the steering winds at 500 mb are mostly in an easterly (and also convergent) direction, according to both the GFS and ECMWF models. (When there’s convergent air aloft, that does not usually favor well for lift, a necessary ingredient for precipitation.) In short, I’m not buying it.

Sunday should remain mostly sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s throughout the forecast region. Sunday night will be more cloudy over the whole region and have temperatures in the mid-50s throughout.

Labor Day

More clouds can be expected on Labor Day. This will also put a slight damper on our temperatures, so lower 70s can be expected. However, like I said before, I do not believe there is any significant chance of rain.

For perspective, average high temperatures for this weekend are 73-74 degrees in Buffalo, 74-75 in Rochester, and 71-72 in Little Valley and Bradford.

~Jerry