Let me start off by saying one thing: this forecast looks like it’ll be much easier than the last one, even though I pretty much got that one right.

High pressure is building its way into the region from Indiana, helping to push out a few lingering clouds this morning. Afternoon highs today should reach into the mid-70s, with calm winds.

Tonight, skies will be clear. With relatively dry, calm air and an opportunity for radiational cooling, temperatures will likely cool into the mid-40s.

Tomorrow, we get one last blast of summer, as the fairly fast-moving high moves to our east and we enter the southerly flow of the anticyclone. 850-mb temperatures in this sector are up in the 17 C ballpark, raising the potential for temperatures in the mid-80s Tuesday afternoon. The air, however, is significantly drier than what we’ve experienced the past couple of weeks. This leaves little opportunity for fog or convective thunderstorms.

A cold front passes through the region Wednesday. It doesn’t carry much precipitation, but the temperature change will be very noticeable– 850-mb temps drop from 17 C to approximately 7 C. This will bring our temperatures back down into the low 70s, a shave below the mid-70s average for this time of year, but still seasonable. As lake temperatures are in the 75 F (24 C) range right now, this gives a lake-850 lapse rate of about 17 C, well above the 13 C threshold for lake effect (RAIN, not snow folks… no need to panic). The wind orientation, westerly, appears to be oriented right for most of Wednesday to possibly develop a band. Whatever band forms will likely be short-lived, as winds shift to light and northerly by Thursday.

In longer terms, the upper-air trough over the area, indicating cool air, is expected to stay over the area for the week.

~Jerry