First off, an apology. Yesterday I reported that the first wave of showers would miss the western New York region. As many of you saw last night, that didn’t happen. A strong outflow boundary formed last night and extended itself across New York and Pennsylvania, and instead of traveling parallel to its axis (northward) like originally predicted, it propagated eastward and swept across most of the state.

Today, however, dew points remain very high, in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The chance of showers will linger this morning before clearer, somewhat drier air should move in later this morning and into this afternoon. However, the threat is not as much prolonged heavy rain as I had predicted earlier, but more frequent convective cells. The amount of rain won’t likely be as much, in the ballpark of a quarter to half an inch. Afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s.

Tonight, things dry out for a bit. The cold front is undergoing cyclolysis, or weakening, right now and it’s difficult to place where it actually is. Lower dewpoints will lead to more comfortable lows, in the upper 50s.

Saturday, the all-important day with the street carnival, Blazin’ Cruise Car Show, and all the other things going on around Little Valley that day… there’s a chance of rain, but a small one, and I believe for the most part things are going to stay dry during the day. There will be a mix of sun and clouds with afternoon highs reaching a more comfortable mid-70s range.

Saturday night and Sunday are proving to be very difficult to forecast. The HPC is putting us right on the fringe of rain for Saturday night,  with better chances of precipitation for those south and east, where the front is expected to interact with Hurricane Bill. Potter County will likely have a greater chance of rain than Cattaraugus County. Sunday will begin a longer-term clearout as high pressure moves in from the west, and the low pressure dies out. Afternoon highs for Sunday will be much, much cooler, on the order of upper 60s, according to MOS consensus.

Is it autumn yet?

~Jerry