A disturbance moving northeast from the Tennessee valley will make Friday’s forecast a difficult one. Portions of the area will see soaking rains, while other locations will hardly see a sprinkle.

For tonight, mid & high level clouds have already moved in covering the majority of the forecast area.  Not much showing up on the radar as of 8pm, so things should remain dry for most locations through atleast midnight, but skies will remain cloudy.  Lows tonight will remain in the low 60s with the thick cloud cover.  Temperatures tend to remain steady with clouds as heat has no where to escape from the atmosphere.

As I noted above, the exact track of the aforementioned disturbance will play a critical role in who receives rain and how much.  Over the past 48 hours, the models have shifted the forecast track a little east with each and every model run.  It now appears that the city of Rochester may remain mostly dry tomorrow while locations east and south of the city will see steady rain.  Not the same story for Oswego as the Oswego area remains close enough to the expected track to keep showers in the forecast.

With that said, expect mostly cloudy skies for Rochester with only a chance of a passing shower during the morning, especially for locations on the east and south side of town. Mostly sunny skies will return for the afternoon.  Highs will reach the upper 70s .

For Oswego, I am thinking the best chance for rain will be during the early morning hours on Friday — between 3am and 7am with only a chance for a scattered shower through early afternoon.  Otherwise, same story here with mostly cloudy skies for the morning with clouds breaking after noon. Highs in the mid 70s.

Things will quickly dry out come tomorrow evening.  Plenty of dry air will move in clearing things out for Friday night and Saturday. Saturday looks spectacular right now with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low to mid 80s kicking off August.   Sunday isn’t looking too great with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Saturday is by far the day for any outdoor activities.

-AR