Rochester, NY Area Weather

High pressure is currently anchored over Pennsylvania, giving much of northern Appalachia clear skies and relatively cool (but refreshing) temperatures. This will remain in place for most of Tuesday and Wednesday, before a typical textbook cold front comes through with some rain and knocks temperatures downward heading into the weekend.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High temperatures in the upper 70s.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, slightly warmer. Early low temperatures in the upper 50s, slightly cooler in the valleys. High temperatures in the low 80s.

Thursday: Rain in the  overnight; clouds and sun by daylight. Lows in the low 60s. Highs in the mid-70s. Lows heading into Friday morning in the low 50s.

Friday through Monday: Friday and Saturday look to be dry, mostly sunny and comparatively cool. Afternoon highs for those days will likely hover around 70, possibly in the low 70s. Low temperatures will be around 50. As Cattaraugus County Fair week approaches, the models are suggesting an increased chance of precipitation but a slight bump in high temperatures into the mid-70s. This is associated with a wind shift that will bring warmer, more moist Gulf air over the region. It won’t be hot and sticky like the past couple of weeks, but it’ll raise the threat of convective thunderstorms (it does not appear to be an organized front).

Long range: GFS pushes a body of fairly (i.e. easily more than half an inch) heavy rain across the Great Plains (quite quickly) into the area on Wednesday, August 4.

Climatologically speaking: The slide begins. As I stated in a previous post, July 22 is the day of peak temperature, climatologically speaking, in Little Valley. As the days begin to get shorter and shorter, less daylight, and less direct daylight, begin to lead temperatures downward. It doesn’t begin to have significant effect until August, but as far as high temperatures go, it’s (generally) all downhill from here. We notice that with the beginning appearances of cold fronts this week. This doesn’t rule out more hot days like we’ve seen earlier this summer, but they will be fewer and farther between as August progresses.

Of all the times to be stuck at work… tornadoes swept through Randolph, Mayville, and portions of southern Cattaraugus County at around 5:00 p.m. this afternoon, knocking down trees and causing general mayhem. The NWS reports at least four alleged tornadoes, and at least one has been confirmed. Gas pumps were knocked over at a Sugarcreek on the west side of Randolph near I-86. Landmark Chevrolet in Randolph was apparently decapitated (the roof, that is). In Little Valley, a lightning strike took out some modems and telephone service, while a large evergreen tree fell down right in front of my house, just barely missing it. Several trees and power lines have been reported as downed, including people trapped in an Amish buggy. Some barns have been reported as completely toppled.

As of midnight 7/25, the list of storm reports from the NWS can be found here.

~J. M. Fuller